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Wednesday, October 17, 2018
  • 14:30U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, October 6.49 (forecast 2.167)
  • 14:29EU Commission to reject Italy budget plan: Spiegel
  • 12:41Canadian manufacturing sales fell 0.4% to $58.6 billion in August

    Manufacturing sales fell 0.4% to $58.6 billion in August, following three consecutive monthly increases.

    The decline was mainly due to lower motor vehicle sales. Excluding this industry, manufacturing sales rose 0.4% in August.

    Sales were down in 7 of 21 industries, representing 50.9% of the Canadian manufacturing sector.

    After taking price changes into account, the volume of sales in the manufacturing sector edged down 0.3% in Augu

  • 12:39U.S building permits and housing starts lower than expected in September

    Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 0.6 percent below the revised August rate of 1,249,000 and is 1.0 percent below the September 2017 rate of 1,254,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 851,000; this is 2.9 percent above the revised August figure of 827,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 351,000 in September.

    Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000. This is 5.3 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,268,000, but is 3.7 percent above the September 2017 rate of 1,158,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 871,000; this is 0.9 percent below the revised August figure of 879,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 324,000.

  • 12:30U.S.: Building Permits, September 1.241 (forecast 1.278)
  • 12:30U.S.: Housing Starts, September 1.201 (forecast 1.22)
  • 12:30Canada: Manufacturing Shipments (MoM), August -0.4% (forecast -0.6%)
  • 10:54EU Official: Many Countries Want No-Deal Brexit Summit In November @LiveSquawk
  • 09:55Stocks in Asia and Europe advanced after a rally in the U.S. in which the Dow rose more than 500 points. Futures pointed to a small opening gain for U.S. stocks
  • 09:09The Euro area annual inflation rate was 2.1% in September 2018, up from 2.0% in August

    A year earlier, the rate was 1.5%. European Union annual inflation was 2.2% in September 2018, stable compared to August. A year earlier, the rate was 1.8%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. The lowest annual rates were registered in Denmark (0.5%), Greece (1.1%) and Ireland (1.2%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.7%), Hungary (3.7%) and Bulgaria (3.6%). Compared with August 2018, annual inflation fell in nine Member States, remained stable in four and rose in fourteen. In September 2018, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.90 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.57 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.51 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.08 pp).

  • 09:00Eurozone: Construction Output, y/y, August 2.5% (forecast 1.7%)
  • 09:00Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, September 2.1% (forecast 2.1%)
  • 09:00Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, September 0.5% (forecast 0.5%)
  • 09:00Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, September 0.9% (forecast 0.9%)
  • 08:50UK house prices rose by 3.2% y/y

    UK house prices rose by 3.2% in the year to August 2018, down from 3.4% in the year to July 2018. Annual growth in house prices has remained broadly stable at a national level since April 2018.

    House prices grew fastest in the East Midlands region increasing by 6.5% in the year to August 2018, followed by the West Midlands region which increased by 5.1% over the year. House prices in London fell by 0.2% in the year to August 2018. Annual growth in London house prices has been around zero for the last 6 months.

  • 08:50The headline rate of UK producer price inflation was 3.1% on the year to September

    The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 3.1% on the year to September 2018, up from 2.9% in August 2018.

    The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process rose to 10.3% on the year to September 2018, up from 9.4% in August 2018.

    All product groups provided upward contributions to output and input annual inflation.

    Annual inflation remained positive for both input and output indices for the 27th consecutive month; this is the longest period where both indices have displayed positive growth since May 2012.

  • 08:48UK CPI rose less than expected in September

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in September 2018, down from 2.4% in August 2018.

    The largest downward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages where prices fell between August and September 2018 but rose between the same two months a year ago.

    Other large downward contributions came from transport, recreation and culture, and clothing.

    Partially offsetting upward contributions came from increases to electricity and gas prices.

    The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.4% in September 2018, down from 2.7% in August 2018.

  • 08:30United Kingdom: HICP, Y/Y, September 2.4% (forecast 2.6%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y, September 1.9% (forecast 2%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: HICP, m/m, September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) , September 3.1% (forecast 2.9%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , September 10.3% (forecast 9.2%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), September 1.3% (forecast 1%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: Retail prices, Y/Y, September 3.3% (forecast 3.5%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: Retail Price Index, m/m, September 0% (forecast 0.2%)
  • 08:30United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), September 0.4% (forecast 0.2%)
  • 07:28Irish Foreign Min Coveney: Ireland Has Absolute Solidarity Across EU Members @LiveSquawk

    • EU's Barnier Has Indicated Clearly That EU Side Is Willing To Allow More Time To Find Solution To Backstop

  • 07:14Options levels on wednesday, October 17, 2018

    EUR/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.1726 (1930)

    $1.1703 (2074)

    $1.1670 (457)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.1566

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.1531 (4424)

    $1.1499 (3378)

    $1.1464 (2867)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 79789 contracts (according to data from October, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (4442);


    GBP/USD

    Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

    $1.3309 (1012)

    $1.3282 (802)

    $1.3264 (388)

    Price at time of writing this review: $1.3184

    Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

    $1.3133 (457)

    $1.3082 (684)

    $1.3018 (1997)


    Comments:

    - Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 19 is 23330 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (3428);

    - Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 19 is 27166 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3005);

    - The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 16

    * - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

    ** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

  • 06:25The dollar consolidates, the yen weakens as the risk sentiment improves

    On Wednesday, the dollar is little changed so far against most major currencies, but rose against the yen, as optimistic earnings on Wall Street improved investor sentiment.

    The three major Wall Street indices rose by more than 2%, because blue chips provided high incomes, which indicates that the recovery of the US economy is in full swing, despite the impact of rising interest rates and tensions in world trade.

    The data on Tuesday showed that industrial production in the United States increased in September for the fourth month in a row, helped by growth in manufacturing and mining, but growth rates declined sharply in the third quarter.

    The dollar index, an indicator of its value against six major currencies, is trading at 95.08 on Wednesday.

    The dollar rose 0.13% against the Japanese yen , which was trading at Y112.40 against the dollar. The yen rose seven of eight sessions until Tuesday and reached a monthly high of Y111.61 on Monday.

    Buyers expect further signals for the dollar from the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which will be published later today. Investors are looking for clues about how the interest rate will increase this year.

    Interest rate futures indicate a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at the December meeting, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool analytic report.

    The British pound is trading at $ 1.3187 on Wednesday after it rose 0.25% on Tuesday. While growth was supported by stronger than expected data from the UK labor market, investors still doubt that a European Union summit on Wednesday will provide significant progress on the issue of NI border.

  • 06:23Interest rate futures indicate a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at the December meeting, according to the CME Group FedWatch
  • 06:19EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier open to extending Brexit transition by another year - FT
  • 06:17Fed's Daly Says Gradual Rate Rises Seem Prudent

    "The way I'm approaching it...is very consistent with the way the [rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee] has been approaching it while I haven't been a member or participant, and that is you make a gradual pace of normalization" to help keep the economy moving forward, Ms. Daly said. - via DJ

  • 06:14The U.S 10-year Treasury note yield was down 0.6 basis points to 3.158%. The two-year note yield was up by 0.6 basis points to 2.867%, while the 30-year bond yield fell 1.2 basis points to 3.330%, according to Dow Jones Market Data
  • 06:14Trump Complains About Rising Interest Rates, Calling the Fed 'My Biggest Threat'

    "It's independent so I don't speak to him, but I'm not happy with what he's doing, because it's going too fast," Mr. Trump said in an interview with the Fox Business Network, referring to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom he nominated last year. "You looked at the last inflation numbers, they're very low."

  • 06:11Trump: Blaming Saudi Arabia for Khashoggi's Disappearance Another Instance of 'Guilty Until Proven Innocent' - AP Interview

    • 'We Just Went Through That with Justice Kavanaugh and He Was Innocent All the Way'

  • 22:31Currencies. Daily history for October 16’ 2018:


    Pare

    Closed

    % change

    EUR/USD

    $1,1572

    -0,08%

    GBP/USD

    $1,3183

    +0,24%

    USD/CHF

    Chf0,9903

    +0,34%

    USD/JPY

    Y112,28

    +0,46%

    EUR/JPY

    Y129,93

    +0,38%

    GBP/JPY

    Y148,033

    +0,70%

    AUD/USD

    $0,7141

    +0,05%

    NZD/USD

    $0,6584

    -0,13%

    USD/CAD

    C$1,2934

    -0,38%

  • 22:01Schedule for today, Wednesday, October 17’2018
  • 20:00U.S.: Total Net TIC Flows, August 108.2 (forecast 19.9)
  • 20:00U.S.: Net Long-term TIC Flows , August 131.8 (forecast 47.7)
  • 14:10No deal Brexit is more likely than ever before - EU's Tusk
  • 14:08The number of U.S job openings reached a series high of 7.1 million on the last business day of August

    The number of job openings reached a series high of 7.1 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.2 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.

  • 14:00U.S.: JOLTs Job Openings, August 7.136 (forecast 6.945)
  • 14:00U.S.: NAHB Housing Market Index, October 68 (forecast 67)
  • 13:21U.S industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September

    Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September, about the same rate of change as in the previous two months. Output growth in September was held down slightly by Hurricane Florence, with an estimated effect of less than 0.1 percentage point. For the third quarter as a whole, total industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 3.3 percent. In September, manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent for its fourth consecutive monthly increase, while the output of utilities was unchanged. The index for mining increased 0.5 percent and has moved up in each of the past eight months. At 108.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 5.1 percent higher in September than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.

  • 13:15U.S.: Industrial Production YoY , September 5.1%
  • 13:15U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
  • 13:15U.S.: Capacity Utilization, September 78.1% (forecast 78.2%)
  • 12:38Foreign investment in Canadian securities slowed to $2.8 billion in August

    Foreign investment in Canadian securities slowed to $2.8 billion in August, down from $15.3 billion in July. At the same time, Canadian investors reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $194 million as they acquired bonds but sold equities.

    As a result, Canada's international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds in the economy of $3.0 billion in August.

    Foreign holdings of Canadian bonds were down $7.4 billion in August, as non-residents reduced their holdings of both government and corporate bonds. This decline followed investment of $12.7 billion in July. The reduction in holdings of government bonds in August was all in federal bonds (-$3.8 billion). Foreign investors reduced their exposure to federal government bonds for the eighth time in nine months, totalling $33.1 billion over the period.

  • 12:30Canada: Foreign Securities Purchases, August 2.82
  • 12:24Barnier: There are a lot of open issues related to Irish border @stewhampton
Economic Calendar
Time Region Importance Event Previous Forecast Actual
12:30
Canada
!
!
!
Foreign Securities Purchases15.292.82
13:15
United Kingdom
!
!
!
MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
13:15
U.S.
!
!
!
Capacity Utilization78.1%78.2%78.1%
13:15
U.S.
!
!
!
Industrial Production YoY 4.9%5.1%
13:15
U.S.
!
!
!
Industrial Production (MoM)0.4%0.2%0.3%
14:00
U.S.
!
!
!
NAHB Housing Market Index676768
14:00
U.S.
!
!
!
JOLTs Job Openings7.0776.9457.136
20:00
U.S.
!
!
!
Net Long-term TIC Flows 66.747.7131.8
20:00
U.S.
!
!
!
Total Net TIC Flows42.719.9108.2
20:15
U.S.
!
!
!
FOMC Member Daly Speaks
21:20
Australia
!
!
!
RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
07:30
Eurozone
!
!
!
ECB's Peter Praet Speaks
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Producer Price Index - Output (MoM)0.2%0.2%0.4%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Retail Price Index, m/m0.9%0.2%0%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Producer Price Index - Input (MoM)1.2%1%1.3%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) 9.4%9.2%10.3%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) 2.9%2.9%3.1%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Retail prices, Y/Y3.5%3.5%3.3%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y2.1%2%1.9%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
HICP, m/m0.7%0.2%0.1%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
HICP, Y/Y2.7%2.6%2.4%
09:00
Eurozone
!
!
!
Construction Output, y/y2.2%1.7%2.5%
09:00
Eurozone
!
!
!
Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y0.9%0.9%0.9%
09:00
Eurozone
!
!
!
Harmonized CPI0.2%0.5%0.5%
09:00
Eurozone
!
!
!
Harmonized CPI, Y/Y2%2.1%2.1%
12:30
Canada
!
!
!
Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)0.9%-0.6%-0.4%
12:30
U.S.
!
!
!
Housing Starts1.2681.221.201
12:30
U.S.
!
!
!
Building Permits1.2491.2781.241
14:30
U.S.
!
!
!
Crude Oil Inventories5.9872.1676.49
16:10
U.S.
!
!
!
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
16:30
Germany
!
!
!
German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
17:00
United Kingdom
!
!
!
MPC Member Dr Ben Broadbent Speaks
18:00
U.S.
!
!
!
FOMC meeting minutes
23:50
Japan
!
!
!
Trade Balance Total, bln-445-50
00:30
Australia
!
!
!
Unemployment rate5.3%5.3%
00:30
Australia
!
!
!
Changing the number of employed4415
06:00
Switzerland
!
!
!
Trade Balance1.41
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Retail Sales (YoY) 3.3%3.6%
08:30
United Kingdom
!
!
!
Retail Sales (MoM)0.3%-0.4%
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Technical Analysis